EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

The 5.1 New York Earthquake

- May 12, 2002 -

The 5.1 New York earthquake at 44.51N 73.66W on April 20, 2002 [1] made American seismologists surprised because their "Plates Theory" never supposed New York to have an earthquake, especially such a magnitude. By contrast, my Dehydration Theory had showed a geoeruption at about 44N and 71W in Image 20020308 18:00 [2] . In this essay, I will talk about what is new with my theory.

First, the temperature of New York suddenly rose up to 85oF (29oC) on April 17 and 95oF (35oC) on April 18, 2002, and kept hot all day long from morning to night like summer. I asked residents if it was abnormal, and they did not know. However, after the quake, it dropped down sharply. The same phenomenon appeared before the 7.8 Tangshan, China Earthquake on July 28, 1976, the 7.4 Turkey Earthquake on August 17, 1999, the 7.6 Taiwan earthquake on September 20, 1999, the 7.1 Hector Mine Earthquake October 16, 1999 and so on. Therefore, it should be a general phenomenon.

Some seismologists may propose the 7.3 Haicheng, China earthquake on February 4, 1975 as a counter example because of its frozen surface. However, the both facts that part of the ice in a shade of a frozen reservoir had melted during a very cold winter [3], and many hibernating snakes had gone out off their holes and died on the frozen ground before the earthquake [4] reveal its unusual heat underground.

They may ask me why they neither felt hot before the Northridge earthquake at 4:31 a.m. January 17, 1994, nor received any report like those of Haicheng earthquake. It is true that the temperature was low before the Northridge earthquake. I touched the ground of Pasadena (34.133N, 118.125W), 38.9km away to Northridge (34.213N, 118.537W), ten times a day after January 8, and found the land was cool, either. Whereas, the both facts, just like the frozen ground of Haicheng, do not prove the Northridge earthquake without enormous heat.

Fortunately, I found the Northridge earthquake cloud on January 8, 1994 [5] , which is rare evidence of abounding heat. Moreover, I went to the United States Geological Survey to predict the Northridge earthquake on January 15, Saturday, but no one was in the office before the earthquake. By contrast, there is someone in the seismic office of my hometown Hangzhou (30N, 120E), China every time in spire of no earthquake in its history. Thus, the problem is not due to no report, but due to no seismologist to receive reports.

On the other hand, listening to people for information is a good idea, but it may be better that scientists do more work to obtain the first-hand data by themselves because sometimes people do not know valuable information. For example, some residents here told me that 95oF was normal in New York because its highest temperature was about 105oF. However, when I asked them if 95oF was normal in April, they had no idea. Not only people, but also seismologists make mistakes sometimes, for instance, some seismologists got a wrong message from their colleagues that the Northridge earthquake happened in a place, where no any earthquake had happened before. However, they felt surprised when I showed them 78 small earthquakes with a distance less than 10 km to the epicenter before the earthquake in the Southern California Earthquake Database.

In short, abnormal temperature is a common sign of large earthquakes, which can be felt directly in some cases, while it needs a careful observation to find in other cases.

Second, Image 20020418 18:00 [6] showed the second geoeruption. Comparing with the first geoeruption on March 8, having a delay 43 days, the second geoeruption narrowed the delay into 2 days, which is meaningful. Furthermore, the second geoeruption showed that the sudden heat on April 17~18 was due to the 5.1 earthquake.

All in all, "Dehydration Theory" is a truth. It works everywhere although lacking good data to help it. By contrast, the "Plates Theory" works neither in New York, nor in Los Angles, costing a lot of taxes[7]. If the American Society uses a part of those wasted taxes [8] to solve a few technical problems of satellite images, for example to expose the trace of an earthquake cloud, and of earthquake databases [9] , all large earthquakes will be able to predict easily and exactly.



References

  1. The 5.1 New York earthquake map on April 20,2002
  2. Image 20020308 18:00
  3. Yang, C.S. Temporal and spatial distribution of anomalous ground water changes before the 1975 Haicheng earthquake. Acta Seismologica Sinica 4, No.1, 84-89 (1982).
  4. Jiang, J.C. & Du, Z. A study on the relationship between the events of hibernating snakes crawling out from their holes (EHSCH) and the earthquakes. Journal of Seismological Research 7, No. 6, 725-734 (1984).
  5. "The Northridge Earthquake & Its Cloud (Rewrite)" on August 12, 2001
  6. Image 20020418 18:00
  7. *Martin Kasindorf. L.A.'s Big Squeeze likely site of next major quake. USA TODAY. 8/3 3A (1999).
  8. "The 7.0 Hector Mine, Southern California Earthquake Shows That I Am Right" (Rewrite) on June 2, 2002
  9. "Earthquake Database Problems" on May 15, 2001


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