EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

The 7.8 Mexico Earthquake & My Good Prediction

- January 30, 2003 -

The 7.8 Colima, Mexico Earthquake happened at 18.76N, 103.84W on January 22, 2003 [1], which killed 29, injured 300 and produced 10,000 homeless people. On the other hand, I predicted it correctly. In this essay, I will simply discuss my prediction, and my opinion for the tragedy.

First, I predicted an earthquake of magnitude equal to or bigger than 5.5 by a wave-shaped earthquake cloud in Image 20021202 6:00, whose epicenter was marked by "?" [2] on December 22, 2002. Due to satellite data problems [3], I was not certain, but believed it near the mark. Surprisingly, the 7.8 epicenter, marked by *[4], is very close to the mark "?". The delay 51 days from the cloud to the earthquake is within 78 days. The magnitude 7.8 is bigger than 5.5. In short, this prediction to the Public on December 22, 2002 is very good.

I also predicted an earthquake of magnitude equal to or bigger than 5 with a geoeruption in Image 20021222 21:30, whose epicenter was marked by "?" [5], to the Public on January 12, 2003. The 7.8 epicenter with a mark *[6] is very close to the predicted epicenter, too. However, I am waiting to see if there will be another earthquake of magnitude more than 5 nearby within 104 days since December 22, 2002. If so, there should be a magnitude error about 1 mainly from the earthquake database of the USGS because the cloud could not reach 7.8. Otherwise, I would think about the sum of the both precursors for the magnitude.

Second, I already explained the difficulties of my work from both meteorological satellite images [3] and earthquake databases [7], [8]. I further proposed, "If the Society helps me to overcome the both problems, a successful evacuation will help the Society itself in the near future. Otherwise, this table [9] will be longer and longer" [10].

All in all, the Society spends billion dollars a year on seismological study, but no one predicted the 7.8 Colima, Mexico Earthquake or anything else correctly and scientifically. On the other hand, without necessary data, I had been uncertain for the fact that my Colima, Mexico earthquake prediction could reach a such high level. The above fact suggests that at least the Colima tragedy came not only from the earthquake, but also from the Society itself.



References

  1. Map The 7.8 Colima, Mexico earthquake on 1/22/2003 by the USGS
  2. Image 20021202 6:00 The 7.8 Colima, Mexico EQ cloud
  3. Essay Satellite Data Problems
  4. Image 20021202 6:00 The 7.8 Colima epicenter *
  5. Image 20021222 21:30 A geoeruption maybe linking to the Colima earthquake
  6. Image 20021222 21:30 The 7.8 Colima epicenter *
  7. Table Devastating Earthquakes since 1999
  8. Essay Earthquake Database Problems
  9. Essay Problems of the World Earthquake Database of the U S Geological Survey
  10. Essay New Year Greeting


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