EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

My Gulf of California Earthquake Prediction Is Successful

- March 30, 2003 -

On February 24, 2003, I predicted an earthquake of magnitude >= 6.3 M in Mexico within 73 days to the USGS and the Public by our web site. Its time probability is 21.8 %. On February 28, I supplemented a fine time window from February 28 to April 18, and a longitude window: >= 95W, whose probability is 12.4%. The 6.4 Gulf of California, Mexico earthquake at 26.33N 110.64W on March 12 [1] demonstrates that all predicted windows are successful. Is there something new?

The response is affirmative. First, a geoeruption on February 9 [2] predicted the epicenter, and the earthquake cloud on February 19 [3] indicated the magnitude and the time. This coincidence implies that a geoeruption can happen before an earthquake cloud, which explains why its longest span, 104 days update, can be longer than that of the clouds, 78 days. This phenomenon can be used to reduce an area window by the clouds sometimes

Second, another geoeruption on March 14 [4], [5] two days after the 6.4 earthquake, shows that vapor can release after a large earthquake, by which one can check whether or not an earthquake report is good sometimes. The coincidence between this tiny geoeruption [4], [5] and the epicenter reported by the USGS [1] proves that the USGS did an excellent job. In contrast, the Mexican report on the west coast of the land has an error 50 km at least, which needs to improve.

In summery, there are two new findings. First, a geoeruption can happen before an earthquake cloud, by which an area window of an earthquake cloud can become smaller sometimes. Second, a tiny geoeruption can emerge after a large earthquake sometimes, by which one can check whether or not an earthquake report is good sometimes.



References

  1. The 6.4 Gulf of California earthquake map by the USGS
  2. Image 20030209 15:30 The Pre-geoeruption of the 6.4 Gulf of California Earthquake
  3. Image 20030219 21:30 The 6.4 Gulf of California EQ Cloud
  4. Image 20030314 3:30 The After-geoeruption of the 6.4 Gulf of California Earthquake
  5. Image 20030314 15:30 The After-geoeruption of the 6.4 Gulf of California Earthquake


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