EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

An Explanation for Some Common Questions

- September 21, 2003 -

Many people asked me if a large earthquake would attack their hometowns. I very appreciate their belief in our work, and would like to reveal a general explanation of what I know, what I do not know, and what my hope is.

First, a large earthquake will not happen at such a place where no any earthquake occurred in its history because there must be a process from small shocks to a large earthquake according to my theory [1]. For example, a seismologist proposed the Northridge earthquake as a counter example of 'All by a sudden', reported by many papers, to disprove my theory in 1994. However, I showed him a table of 78 small shocks before and around the Northridge epicenter within 10 km, supported by the Southern California Earthquake Data of the USGS. As a result, he complained about those publications.

Second, a large earthquake can happen at a place where no big earthquake took place before . For instance, there was no large earthquake in Liaoning province, China until the 7.3 Haicheng Earthquake on Feb. 4, 1975. However, small ones had happened there [2].

Third, large earthquakes do not have a periodical property, about which the USGS did a famous Parkfield experiment from 1985 to 1993 [3]. The result denies such a hypothesis.

Fourth, a big earthquake can happen within a few days after an earthquake cloud or a geoeruption, before which there had been no precursor for a long time. For example, a geoeruption emerged along the coast of Chile on Aug. 15. 1999 [4], before which nothing had been dangerous for a long time. Just a week later, the 6.4 Chile earthquake took place at 40.5S, 74.7W on Aug. 22. Thus, if I had predicted no large earthquake in Chile before Aug. 15, I would have made a big mistake.

Fifth, lacking source[5], [6], [7], I can not make my predictions all right and exact although some examples are excellent. Therefore, I can not reply whether or not a large earthquake will attack a specific city even if I propose a precursor near it sometimes.

Above are what I know and what I do not know. Without a necessary fund, I can not do what I want to do, and reply your questions about whether a big one will attack your hometown. If you really worry about a big earthquake, or sympathize earthquake victims, or admire my work, I hope you to donate money to my work [8], so I will be able to renew my computer and so on to work effectively, and to have great evidence of individual supports for a fund from the U. S. Government to solve those satellite data problems [5].



References

  1. Article: A991003 Earthquake Clouds, a reliable precursor, Science & Utopya 64, 53~57 (1999)
  2. Haicheng Earthquake Study Delegation. Prediction of the Haicheng earthquake. Eos 58, 236-272 (1977)
    3. .
  3. Essay: A030316 Official Earthquake Warnings in USA & My Suggestion
  4. Images19990815 15:00 The 6.4 Chile geoeruption
  5. Essay: A020804 Satellite Data Problems
  6. Essay: A010515 Earthquake Database Problems
  7. Essay: A020811 Problems of the World Earthquake Database of the U S Geological Survey
  8. Essay: A021109 Donations Are Deeply Appreciated


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