EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

Views from the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction

- November 15, 2003 -

On November 15, 1993, the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) predicted an M6 earthquake in Parkfield [1] within 3 days. Today is the tenth anniversary of this prediction. Ignoring its failure, many scientists from different countries insist on its error. They claimed a large earthquake in Tokyo, Istanbul, Chile, or somewhere else where one or more large earthquakes had happened before. As a result, people became panic, and wrote me about their predictions. Therefore, I would like to simply add something as a supplement of "Official Earthquake Warnings in USA & My Suggestion"[2].

My theory explains how a large earthquake occurs in detail [3]. According to it, active crevices are extremely important for large earthquakes. After a large earthquake, many crevices appear. Therefore, it is unnecessary to say that next big one will follow someday. The key question is the time windows that those professors might forget to claim. The Parkfield prediction offers an excellent example that even if extending its time window to 10 years, this elaborately studied periodical pattern still does not work. Therefore, those so called predictions might have a 10-year time window that does not make a sense to people.

On the other hand, a large earthquake can happen in a place where no large earthquake happened before, but some small ones. For example, the 7.3 Haicheng earthquake on February 4, 1975 occurred in Liaoning province where no large earthquake had happened in history [4]. Therefore, I would like to point out that places like New York, Poland, German, and so on will have large earthquakes someday because small ones have happened. To catch the time, the key is to observe erupting earthquake vapor.

Only those places where no any earthquake has happened will have no large earthquake. However, human activities such as mining, pressing, drilling, pumping, building large dams, and so on can produce crevices that may induce small earthquakes with water and need to pay attention.



References

  1. A Parkfield map by the USGS
  2. Essay 030316 Official Earthquake Warnings in USA & My Suggestion
  3. Article Earthquake Clouds, a reliable precursor, Science & Utopya 64, 53~57 (1999)
  4. Haicheng Earthquake Study Delegation. Prediction of the Haicheng earthquake. Eos 58, 236-272 (1977)


Home | Introduction | Publication & News | Predictions | New Predictions | Essays | Links | Contact

Sign Our Guestbook Guestbook View Our Guestbook

Updated: November 15, 2003 | Webmaster