EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

Iran Earthquake Situation

- March 5, 2004 -

Iranian people asked me to verify if the M7 cloud was real or not, and if so where the epicenter would be. I would like to propose my raw view for reference.

At first, I believe that the two clouds should be earthquake clouds because they are linear [1], and are not reduced whether clouds. Moreover, all such clouds I have found are earthquake clouds. However, the authoritative method to distinguish an earthquake cloud from a weather cloud is to find if it emerges from a fixed point suddenly like the Bam cloud [2]. Unfortunately, meteorological satellites show a fixed point only under a cold surrounding like the Bam cloud that appeared at night of last winter. Because an experiential method may take a risk, I estimate a probability of 5% not to be earthquake clouds.

Next, if the two parallel clouds are earthquake clouds, 860 km in length, their magnitudes will be about 7 for the strong one and 6 for the weak one. They will happen within 103 days from Feb. 26, to June 8, 2004, and likely within 80 days. All above numbers have errors.

Then, I have appealed for a financial support to locate all large epicenters independent on a cold surrounding for many years, but neither government, nor people do it. As a result, the epicenters become very difficult to find. I have worked on them for a week, but no confident result. However, I would still like to reveal what I think for Iranian people to refer.

First, earthquake vapor can move 4,000~7,000 km sometimes. For example, the 805-km linear earthquake cloud near Sri Lanka on July 16, 1999 [3] predicted an earthquake of magnitude over 7 from Iran to Italy where the tail of the cloud pointed toward within 103 days. On the other hand, the 7.4 Turkey earthquake on Aug. 17, 1999 was the only one of magnitude equal to or more than 7 in the area of latitude 0~90N, and longitude 0~120E within 530 days from May 31, 1998 to Nov. 11, 1999. This high coincidence between the cloud and the earthquake suggests that the cloud moved a distance of 7,000 km from the epicenter at (40.75N, 29.86E) to the head of the cloud at (7N, 90E).

Image 20010501 8:30 gives a direct example. The black, hot vapor moved a distance over 4,000 km from its source to far east [4]. On May 22, an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 happened at 46.36N, 42.22E. It was the only one of magnitude more than or equal to 4 in the area of (45~55N, 39~50E) within 4 years from Jan. 1, 2000 to Jan. 1, 2004 at least. This high coincidence between the black trace and the earthquake suggests that the vapor moved a distance over 4,000 km from the epicenter at (46.3N, 42.2E) to far east at about (45N, 88E).

The two examples imply a possibility of maybe 10% that the clouds might come from the neighborhoods, such as Iraq, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and even Greece.

Second, please look at a series of images that show releasing heat from hot, black faults, and vapors, arrowed, in Iran recently [5], [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11], [12]. They may give a clue that the probability of the epicenters in Tehran City is relatively small, but it is possible nearby. In my raw opinion, the M7 may be near Fault "abc" or "de" [10], and the M6 may be near the top coast of the Persian Gulf about 49~53E. However, these numbers are just my raw opinion. They may be wrong.

Third, I have to point out a serious societal problem, interrupting earthquake prediction. My Bam prediction has announced itself to be the best in the world, and my theory to be the top on earthquake prediction. However, my work has not obtained a fund. On the other hand, many scientists have spent abounding taxes without a success. For example, geologists of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) claimed their "multi-million dollar sensor array" not to work [13] although I had warned them twice [14], [15]. If they had listened to me, multi-million dollar budges would have been saved. If they had cooperated with me, many earthquake victims would have survived. Even if they had only shared a tiny part of those wasted taxes to ensure my link to the Internet, I would have found the Bam cloud, and warned people in Bam two days earlier, which might have saved some people.

Fourth, I would like to show all images of the two clouds from their appearance to their disappearance [16], so you will be able to judge whether or not they are earthquake clouds, and if so where the epicenters will be by yourselves.

In summary, it would be very easy to find an earthquake cloud, and locate its epicenter if my work got a fund to set up a new satellite camera system. However, such an easy work becomes very difficult due to the societal problem that hopeless projects waste all budges for prediction, while my powerful work lacks a fund. In spire of such a hard condition, I did my best. I offered all messages for the clouds, and my raw opinions. I guess that the M7 may happen near Fault "abc" or "de" [10], and the M6 the top coast of the Persian Gulf about 49~53E.

Finally, I still appeal people to notice and solve the societal problem. Otherwise, my theory [17] can not work to save people, and earthquakes will continuously hit people. I hope Iranian people to be safe.



References

  1. Image 20040226 8:00 Two linear clouds in Iran
  2. Image 20031221 0:00 The 6.5 S Iran EQ Cloud showed at 12:58 a.m. December 25, 2003.
  3. Image 19990716 6:00 to15:00 The 7.4 Turkey EQ Cloud moved 7,000 km from the epicenter at (40.75N, 29.86E) to the head of the cloud at (7N, 90E)
  4. Image 20010501 8:30 The vapor of the 4.6 earthquake moved more than 4,000 km
  5. Image 20040202 10:00 Three hot faults
  6. Image 20040212 23:30 An EQ cloud
  7. Image 20040214 10:00 Releasing heat melted the cloud upwards
  8. Image 20040214 11:00 Releasing heat melted the cloud upwards
  9. Image 20040214 15:00 An EQ cloud from southwest to northeast
  10. Image 20040215 9:00 Releasing heat melted the cloud upwards
  11. Image 20040223 5:30 An EQ cloud from southwest to northeast
  12. Image 20040223 8:00 Hot faults
  13. News. Clarke, Tom. Water thrown on earthquake prediction.NatureAug. 23, 2001
  14. Essay 990810 California Earthquake Situation Analysis
  15. Essay 020602 The 7.0 Hector Mine, Southern California Earthquake Shows That I Am Right (Rewrite)
  16. Images 20040225~0226The couple of clouds from their appearance to their disappearance
  17. Article: Earthquake Clouds, a reliable precursor, Science & Utopya 64, 53~57 (1999)


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