- May 30, 2004 -
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On Mar. 1, I predicted an M7 and an M6 Iran & Neighbor earthquakes (<59E) by the clouds [1] to the public. On May 28, an M6.3 occurred at 36.28N, 51.57E, Iran [2], so my prediction is half correct. The earthquake was strong and near Tehran, so I received many email messages. Difficult to reply one by one, I propose this essay as my response, and hope our dear readers to understand. First, the success of my Bam earthquake prediction relied on a cold environment, at night of a winter, which condensed the vapor into a cloud over the epicenter immediately [3]. However, this M6.3 cloud emerged on the daytime of a spring, so there was a distance between the cloud and the epicenter. Although it was near "b", estimated by Image 20040215 9:00 [4] of "Iran Earthquake Situation" [5], I was not sure then. Second, I am not sure which cloud, the winder or the thinner, predicted the M6.3 because of some M4 nearby. Their vapors together reached that of an M7. Otherwise, an M7 or two M5 is possible somewhere. On the other hand, if one cloud predicted the 6.1 Greece quake on Mar. 17, then there will be no big problem from the couple of clouds [1]. Third, I have no idea to reply whether or not a big earthquake will attack Tehran because I do not have the data I need. To solve the data problems [6], I proposed a paper to introduce my work in the UN/ I.R. of Iran Regional Workshop, and it excited the international scientists. Chinese scientist Chen also introduced my work to the Chinese Committee of Natural Hazard Prediction, and every members of the committee was impressed. I believe that the society will finally recognize my work, and give me an opportunity to solve those problems. On the other hand, it is not my personal work, so I hope our readers to kindly donate my work (not myself), so one day we and our offspring will be able to say "Good-by" to all devastating earthquakes. Finally, I hope people to pay more attention to Images [4], [7], [8]. I faithfully hope Iranian people to have a good luck.
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