Response for Tehran People (renew)

- June 12, 2004 -

First of all, I would still like to thank Tehran people for their belief in my work. Due to English is the second language of both you and me, I hope to care of the words I use. For example, I have not predicted an earthquake in Tehran, but estimated one in the Black triangle ABC, including Tehran, according to this geo-bugle [1]. Because of a lack of necessary data, assistant data like hourly temperature maps (no country has), and earthquake data with a precision 0.1 (maybe only America has) will be helpful, but no such data is available. Some people told me that temperature in Tehran jumped 4 oC, and reached 37oC, but it was in summer. What I say about temperature is a jump of local temperature. It needs at least a series of hourly temperature maps to compare with each other. Because the longest delay of 103 days is over for both the parallel clouds, and the geo-bugle, the possibility for a large earthquake reduced to less than 5%. There are two reasons that make me unable to say 0%. One of them is that satellites have a frequency longer than one image every 30 minutes, and offer no image sometimes, so losing earthquake clouds is possible. The other of them is that the longest delay may be over 103 days. It is very hard to estimate a large earthquake without necessary data like the Bam cloud. Therefore, I suggest Iranian scientists creating an hourly temperature map, and recording earthquakes as small as 0.1 ML, which will help Iranian people themselves eventually. An explaination for the two parallel clouds and the geo-bugle will discuss later. Lacking powerful data, I Hope Iranian people still to care of sound from underground, strange scent like sulfur, sudden heat, strange spring and lightning, and so on. Now, a new sign appearred [2] . This kind of earthquake cloud, gray and low, is dangerous. On Mar. 29, 2003, a such cloud [3] predicted the 6.4 Bingol, Turkey earthquake [4] on May 1, 2003 that killed 158 people and injured 520. I predicted the both time, and magnitude (>=6) correctly, but the epicenter had error due to no powerful data. For this new cloud, I have no idea to pinpoint out its epicenter without powerful data like the Bam cloud. Please not write me for persuasion or for getting my prediction by email because I need time to think. The best way for you is to measure where earthquake vapor erupts the most. If you can give me such data, it will be great.

References

Image 20040215 8:00A geobulge Image 20040612 14:00A Low, Hot EQ Cloud Image 20030329 11:00The Bingol, Turkey EQ Cloud Map the 6.4 Bingol, Turkey EQfrom the USGS

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