EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

My 6.4 Kerman, Iran Earthquake Prediction Is Successful

- February 24, 2005 -

First of all, I would like to thank Iranian people for their congratulations to my recent Kerman, Iran earthquake prediction. They have checked our web site carefully, and knew my success before me.

On Dec. 17, 2004, I predicted an earthquake of magnitude more than or equal to 5, or two earthquakes of magnitude more than or equal to 4, and circled the epicenter by this image [1] within 101 days or 103 days since Dec. 15 to the Public. On Feb. 22, 2005, an M6.4 earthquake occurred at 30.73N 56.82E, Kerman, Iran exactly in the circle [2]. Thus, my prediction is successful.

I was confused by another cloud in the same fault on Nov. 27 [3] when the USGS had reported nothing there. However, it reported an M4.6 at 27.77N 57.57E on Dec. 11 later, so my another prediction by this cloud is also successful, and my question is clear now. Like other data problems, data delay also affects my work.

According to the USGS, this earthquake killed over 400 people and injured many, cited in Death Table [4]. I'm sorry for having neither certain satellite data to know how many vapor sources there, nor standard earthquake data to estimate error although I had appealed many times to solve the both [5], [6]. As a result, I had no idea to narrow the magnitude window. I'm also sorry for lacking time to narrow a time window. In my opinion, it should be within 1 month.

Some people claimed their success for this earthquake or that earthquake by various methods. I would like to suggest giving clear windows of time, area, and magnitude, setting up a model to explain the relationship between his or her method and earthquakes, including earthquake phenomena, and calculating the probability of his or her predictions as what I have done [7], [8].



References

  1. Image 20041215 9:00
  2. Map 20050222Iran6.4 by the USGS
  3. Image 20041127 17:00
  4. Death
  5. Satellite Data Problems
  6. Earthquake Database Problems
  7. Earthquake Clouds, a reliable precursor.
  8. Bam Earthquake Prediction & Space Technology


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Updated: February 24, 2005 | Webmaster