EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION

A Response to Indonesia People

- August 4, 2006 -

Detik News reported my work with a linear cloud near Jakarta, Indonesia in two photographs [1]by Agus Hariyanto on August 1, 2006. Many people asked me whether or not this Jakarta cloud was an earthquake cloud.

It is very difficult to reply this question for two reasons. First, this cloud looks dense, a property of an earthquake cloud. On the other hand, it has a row of ball-shaped small clouds nearby, a sign of not earthquake cloud. Therefore, other properties of an earthquake cloud are important. However, nobody told me if it appeared suddenly, if it was from a fixed location, and if it became more dense later. Second, it would be OK without those details if I had good satellite images. Our paper "Bam Earthquake Prediction & Space Technology" [2] (Bam Paper), published by the UN, reveals many my successful earthquake predictions without photographs. However, they all depend on good satellite data, while I do not have good satellite data now. Here are two images, one at 18:00 of July 24, 2006 [3], and the other at 16:00 of July 28 [4]. Can you image what happened in your capital city then? Another problem is the images for the Pacific region from June 1, 2006 to July 14 all without maps. This image was at 0:00 of June 1 [5]. I am unfamiliar to computer, but I had to figure out a way to map them all for your question. Here is the same cloud at 0:00 of June 1 after adding a map [6]. I checked all images from June 1 to update, but did not find the Jakarta cloud. There are two possibilities: one is that my satellite images miss it because I only have 8 images a day, and the other is that satellite images can not catch an airplane cloud due to too thin. Although I estimate it as an airplane cloud due to the row of ball-shaped clouds, but I do not have hard evidence to support my opinion.

You may think satellite data problems terrible, but man-made limitation is worse than them. Here is a response from the good satellite web master of Dundee University to me, "Sorry, licensing restrictions prevent everyone who can receive hourly images from distributing them to anyone else" on July 21, 2006. Due to the limitation, a satellite produces 48 images a day, but I can get only 4 or 8 images a day. Thus, it is hard to distinguish an earthquake cloud from weather cloud by a sudden appearance and a fixed vapor source. Moreover, some large earthquake cloud existed only within 35 minutes, so many large earthquake clouds will lose totally because of such a man-made limitation.

More interesting is a response from the director of the Indian Space Technology Institute to my Indian friend who was going to help me to solve the most serious satellite data problem. The director said that he can not give those data to"non-Indians barring exceptional circumstances". He seems still to feel no responsibility to 20,023 Indian deaths due to the 7.9 Gujarat earthquake on Jan. 26, 2001.

There are many interesting stories, but I do not have time to show them all. What I hope Indonesia people and other people to understand is two points. First, you are the master of your life, so you'd better learn my theory demonstrated by practice to prevent yourself and your relatives. My theory is easy to understand. When I was in China, I showed my PowerPoint to many friends, including little students, and they all understood it well. Second, my work has been interrupted by satellite data problems, and earthquake data problems. If people can together urge those governments who own satellites to solve satellite data problems, and governments to standardize earthquake data, my method will be able to locate any large epicenter in a place within a radius of 20 km, and to narrow a magnitude window with an error of 0.2M. If more work is done according to my idea, an evacuation will be possible in the near future. Otherwise, tragedy will be unavoidable because no one of widely studied methods has made a successful prediction, yet.

Finally, I would like to explain that my paper "Earthquake Clouds, a reliable precursor" [7] and our Bam Paper have already answered a historic puzzle about whether or not earthquakes can be predicted, but I have no ability to solve man-made problems. Therefore, I repeat that I hope people not to ask me a lot of questions and request me to predict earthquakes to them by email without offering me the data I need. Moreover, my eyes do not work well, and I am very busy. What I can do is to avoid many sorrows by carefully writing my book down for new generations. You know that ancient Chinese people created many miracles in history, but now no one in the World can recreate them. I hold many keys of puzzles in different fields such as seismology, meteorology, environment and so on. I must write them down before seeing my God. Anyway, if you really want to know something, please carefully read my publications at first [8].



References

  1. The Detik Cloud
  2. Darrell Harrington & Zhonghao Shou Bam Earthquake Prediction & Space Technology Seminars of the United Nations Programme on Space Applications16, 39-63 (2005).
  3. 200607241800 bad image from Satellite MTSAT
  4. 200606010000 bad image from Satellite MTSAT
  5. 200606010000 unmapped image by Dundee University, UK
  6. The same 200606010000 image, mapped by Shou
  7. Zhonghao Shou. Earthquake Clouds, a reliable precursor. Science & Utopya 64, 53~57 (1999), English version.
  8. Publication & News


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