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On November 24 and 25, Ms. Akdemir,
a reporter of AKTUEL News magazine in Turkey, interviewed me by e-mail.
She asked me eight questions about my study and suggestion to Istanbul people.
On December 11, Mr. Secilmis, a mechanical engineer,
asked me why I had missed the 7.2 Turkey quake, what data I needed,
and what suggestion I could give to Istanbul people.
He also offered his help.
Moreover, many people from different countries requested me to
predict earthquakes for them.
I thank all of them for their belief in, and willingness to help with my work.
First, I would like to explain why I mispredicted the 7.2 quake from
Turkey to Iran-Turkmenistan.
Although I interpreted it in Essay < An Open Response to the comment of Dr. Kilic >,
the basic reason is that unlike seismologists, I can not do all I want to do.
For example, modern technology makes scientists possible to distinguish
a tiny relative displacement, and thermal difference between two neighborhoods
on the Earth from a satellite.
On the other hand, many facts including my practice prove that earthquake clouds
exist, so there are some holes where earthquake vapors erupt.
Therefore, it is very possible to use modern technology to detect the holes
relying on their high temperature.
I would propose to put a high precision infrared instrument into
a synchronous satellite to peer at Istanbul or other cities to collect
essential data to predict earthquake,
but I do not have the means to do that because my only finacial supporter is
my daughter Wenying, a Ph.D. student at Caltech, who shares a part of
her scholarship to support my study.
Under the passive condition, what I have done for Istanbul people are:
(1) I analysed satellite data for two months, and found
geothermal emission appeared in a few cases
(See Black Sea Geothermal Emission),
but the situation was not serious.
In general, geothermal emission cycles between appearance and disappearance
for a long time, then a big one occurs.
(2) I tried to search web sites for surface wind velocity distribution,
but was not successful.
Dr. Moniri, working for the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering
and Seismology, Tehran-Iran, offered me three sites:
- http://www7300.nrlssc.navy.mil/altimetry/plots.html
- http://www-ccar.colorado.edu/~realtime/global-real-time_winds/
- http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/science/science.html
but their data only provide the speed of wind without giving the direction
(3) I contributed two articles,
"Chinese People Struggle Against Earthquake Disasters" and
"The Haicheng Earthquake and Its Prediction" to
< Science & Utopya > (Issue 65, 30~34).
Below are my suggestions:
- I have a few good ideas for making building strong against earthquake waves,
and rescue effective. If construction companies are interested in those ideas,
I would like to communicate with them.
- Organize an Investigation Team to do the following tasks:
- Phenomena Investigation
Purpose: Find an easy way to detect the holes where earthquake vapors erupt
Theory: Since earthquake vapor contains high temperature and pressure,
it is possible to feel the heat and to hear the sound near a hole
while the vapor is erupting, and to smell the odor
if the underground contains sulfur or phosphorus.
Moreover, the 7.4 and the 7.2 Turkey earthquake clouds were already found,
so figuring out how they moved is important.
Method: Investigate temperature, wind velocity, sound, smell, and
other possible phenomena along the two faults during 6/16~7/16 for
the former and during 8/26~9/26 for the latter.
- Investigation of hypocenters (locations where eathquake waves origin)
Purpose: Install an infrared instrument on a synchronous satellite
Theory:
During "Dehydration", the temperature of a hypocenter can reach the melting point of the rocket, so "Mylonite", "Pseudotachylyte", and even "Recrystallization" occur [1].
Therefore, it is possible to find this evidence from the hypocenter.
Method: To apply for financial support from UN because
this study is the first in the world, and beneficial not only to Turkey,
but also to the whole world.
With the support, drill a hole at one epicenter of either the 7.4 or the 7.2
and get samples from about 10 km depth.
Then, find those structures with an electric microscope.
Meanwhile, send the samples to the experts who are in this field.
- Organize an Installment Team
- Set up a Turkish satellite image web page with wind velocity
Purpose: A hemisphere image is not magnified enough, and lacks wind data.
To overcome those problems, better images are necessary.
Data: Since the majority of wind is from west to east,
and the 7.4 cloud moved far away, the area 0~45N, and 20~85E should be monitored.
Method: Map the above area, translate infrared data from
Satellite GOES or others with a rate once every 30 minutes,
and add wind data obtained by radar.
- Set up a network of infrared video camera systems
Purpose: Many earthquake clouds can be found by eyesight,
but not by satellite images.
Thus, it is important to set up the net to scan the sky.
Method: Build the system at an open place.
- Set up a network of geothermal meters in the water of Marmara Sea.
Purpose: Try to find the holes where earthquake vapors erupt.
Theory: When earthquake vapor erupts toward the sea horizontally,
a part of water becomes much hotter than its neighborhood,
so the sudden change in temperature can be measured.
Method: Build up thermal sensors in the water along
two coasts of Marmara Sea, and transmit the data to a computer center.
- Set up a network of tilt trajectories and some observational wells
around the city.
Purpose: Try to find the time of earthquakes.
Theory: During "Dehydration", a hypocenter is close to its melting point,
and becomes soft, so the crust near the epicenter accelerates its creep.
For example, a tilt trajectory at Shihpengyu Obsevatory, Haicheng,
Liaoning province, China, stopped working 16 hours before the 7.3 Haicheng quake
on Feb. 4, 1975, because of the drastic ground movement [2].
Another fact is that the vertical wall of the earthquake investigative well of
No. 10 Tangshan high school became sloped 4 days before the 7.8 quake on
July 28, 1976 [3].
Method: After an investigation of the details to the both authors,
if it is positive, build up the network of tilt trajectories,
or just choose some wells for observation to save money.
- Organize a Prediction Team
- Collect Data
Collect data from the Turkish satellite image web page,
the net of infrared video camera systems,
and the net of geothermal meters, and also from people about water, oil,
or gas unartificial eruption, suicide snakes on the frozen ground
(called as "the events of hibernating snakes crawling out from their holes"
in general, but the concept is confusing because sometimes
it does not imply a big quake. Only in the case that those snakes die,
does it indicate a big quake [4]), earth sound, earth flash, earth odor,
sudden gaps, and so on.
- Use earthquake clouds to predict earthquakes
- Distinguish earthquake clouds from weather clouds
The characteristics of earthquake clouds are: (1) Emerge suddenly. (See the 6.7 Northridge cloud, the 7.0 Northern California cloud, the 6.3 Oregon Off Coast cloud, and the 4.3 Joshua Tree, SCA cloud in Box "Photos & Images"). (2) Have different shapes from weather clouds. I have found 8 kinds of shapes, 6 of which have photos and are exhibited in our web page. (3) The direction of movement is usually different from that of other clouds. Refer to the 7.4 and the 7.2 Turkey clouds
- Make a prediction. (1) The time window is 49 days since the cloud appears in general. Longer than 49 days is possible, but with much less chance (<1 %). (2) The size window can be made by comparing an earthquake cloud with other known clouds, for example the 6.7 Mexico cloud (300 km), the 7.2 Turkey cloud (500 km), the 6.7 Northridge cloud, and so on. (3) The epicenter can be found by using both the distributions of surface wind velocities, and an earthquake map to trace back the hole where the tail of the cloud points toward, and the vapor of the cloud erupts from.
- Use other methods to help the method of earthquake clouds
Other methods I mentioned in Section 4.1 may be useful for a prediction, but they do not have ranges of time, size and area.
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