The 6.7 Central Mexico Earthquake Prediction on May 17, 1999

On June 15, the 6.7 Central Mexico Earthquake announced that our prediction No. 37 on May 17, 1999 was very successful to both the USGS and the public on this website. The following is a comparison of the prediction and the earthquake: (random chance probability = 8.74%)

	Date	Location	Size (ML)
Prediction	5/25~6/15	Mexico 17~27N	>=6
Earthquake	6/15 20:42	Mexico 18.41N, 97.34W	6.7

This earthquake is the only one stronger than 6ML in Mexico (17~27N) since May 23, 1997 or for 753 days. The rate between the predicted time window (22 days) and the delay 753 days is 1 in 34. Therefore its coincidence is very small. We want to thank people for visiting our site, and especially thank Noe Bernal, Aaron Medeiros, Yu Cao, Adil Nasir, and Justin Hansen for their comments, and Yahoo! for linking to us from their Mexico Earthquake Full Coverage. That this prediction is successful despite of our limited research resources does not mean that we do not need necessary equipment to monitor clouds in the sky, and an hourly distribution of surface currents. We need those equipment to avoid mistakes and reduce area windows for our future predictions. We need people like you to spread our work. Very often we feel as weak as a fire from a match, while the society is as cold as an iceberg. Although we have predicted the 6.7 Central Mexico Earthquake successfully, the tragedy was not prevented (according to the evening news of Channel 2 at 5:50 p.m. on June 16, sixteen people was killed), and no news agent reported our work. This reminds us a similar event when we accurately predicted the 6.1 Afghanistan earthquake on February 4, 1998, the tragedy was not prevented, and no news agent reported our work, either. That our work needs to be reported does not mean that we are interested in becoming famous. We want to get support to develop our research. Our predictions are far from good enough for an actual evacuation. Our goal is to reduce the area window to less than 2,000 km2. To achieve this goal, we need advanced research facilities, cooperation and financial support. We are worried about the next time when tragedy repeats again. Can we prevent it if a big earthquake hits Californian in the near future?

Original Prediction

Image of the prediction signed by an USGS office 5/17/1999 Pasadeda According to my analysis, I predict that there will be an earthquake of magnitude >= 5 ML in Mexico (< 29N) within 48 days. More likely time is 5/20~6/20. The most likely time is 5/25~6/15. More likely size is >= 5.5 ML. The most likely size is >= 6 ML. More likely latitude is 17~27 N. The most likely latitude is 22~25 N. More likely longitude is 100~109 W. The most likely longitude is 104~106W. Zhonghao Shou Map of the corresponding area

Actual Earthquake

99/06/15 20:42:06 18.41N 97.34W 79.6 6.7Mw A CENTRAL MEXICO News: Yahoo! Full Coverage: Mexico Earthquake USGS Earthquake Bulletin

Image of the Earthquake Cloud

InfraRed Image from GOES 8

A Plea to our visitors

We have made another successful prediction! This is another good chance to spread the word about our earthquake prediction research. If you have visited our site and read about our work, please help us make our work known to the media. You can link or suggest our site to earthquake related sites, or get our story to the news. Also you can give us some feedbacks and suggestions as support. Thank you. We hope we will see the light at the end of tunnel soon. Yes, we can do it, we can predict earthquake! Help us help you.

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Updated: June 20, 1999 | Webmaster